A freshman enrolling in a random accredited college in the United States has a 57% chance of graduating from that college within six years.  This figure is presented by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in Placing College Graduation Rates in Context: How 4-year Graduation Rates Vary With Selectivity and the Size of Low-Income Enrollment. It is not, however, the central point of the study, which looks at the impact of both admissions selectivity and the percentage of low income students served on the graduation rates. The study is based on required federal reporting  by 1,301 colleges and universities granting bachelor degrees.

Unsurprisingly, the study finds that graduation rates are higher among schools which have more selective admissions standards. Also unsurprising is the finding that colleges serving a higher percentage of low income students tend to have lower graduation rates. What is more surprising is the degree to which graduation rates vary between institutions serving similar populations of students.  Slightly over 10% of the minimally selective colleges serving large low-income populations still managed graduation rates above 50%, an outcome that exceeded the graduation rates of the bottom 10% of very selective colleges.  Clearly some colleges are better than others at inspiring their students to persist, and provide the support needed to make persistence to graduation possible. The study doesn’t explore what colleges might be doing differently, but by making these data available they are inviting education scholars to take up this issue to begin identifying why some colleges are doing better than expected in graduating students facing academic and financial challenges.

As an individual applying to college, the study has a different set of implications to consider. First, it serves as a reminder that graduation rates by themselves may not tell the full story about how well a particular college serves its students. An applicant with very high test scores and very low family income [that was me in 1984] who understands the implications of this study may ask whether the phenomenal graduation rates at Yale carry over to the relatively small percentage of very low income students enrolled at that institution. [In my case Yale supported achieving graduation largely through generous financial aid, but they weren’t well equipped to provide effective advising for a first generation college student who needed to think seriously about employment opportunities after graduation because I would need to be able to financially support myself as soon as I left college.]

Similarly, a college applicant whose academic credentials are modest and is admitted to a highly selective college as well as to one or more colleges where she is closer to the mean ability level should expect the more selective college will lay claim to a higher graduation rate. If that isn’t the case, she should take a hard look at the less selective school that does surprisingly well at graduating students, for it is clearly doing something right that leads to student success.